A Diplomat's Message: Asian Power is Rising
By Patti Mohr@
Washington, D.C.—A Chinese diplomatic delegation is touring the United States this month to convey an important message: The rise of China and other Asian nations will redefine the world as we know it, and the West will need to adapt to the change.
“The world is undergoing a tremendous change,” Chinese Amb. Wu Jianmin said, addressing a crowd of about 150 students and faculty members at George Washington University on Sept. 9. “The center of gravity of international relations is shifting, from the Atlantic to the Pacific…. The current financial crisis accelerating this change,” Wu added.
Wu’s message carries implications for U.S. businesses, diplomats and politicians. It also speaks to the underlying transformation of the global economy, which impacts everyone—workers, students, consumers and producers.
Since China opened up to the world in 1978, its economy has become increasing integrated with the U.S. economy. Now, as China and other rapidly developing countries assert themselves in the global economy, policymakers are asking how they might change the landscape. What values will they bring to the global stage? Will they play by the global trading rules? Will they force other countries to play by the rules?
According to Wu, China seeks a world where leaders work together on global infrastructure projects to facilitate mutually-beneficial business transactions. It is a world where people from diverse backgrounds seek solutions to challenges of climate change and ecological problems as well as transnational security concerns about terrorism and drug trafficking.
This model, which Wu describes as a harmonious world, emphasizes collaboration over confrontation. It rejects the Cold War era of strategic alliances, intervention and—presumably—hegemonic leadership by the United States.
The idea of this harmonious and cooperative world sounds nice. But the problem, Wu seems to suggest, is that some political and economic leaders still operate with outdated ideas. They see the world through a mindset that places a higher value on strategic alliances than it does on mutually-beneficial economic relationships. “People’s mentality lags behind the reality,” he said.
Yet national security and energy security are still very real forces in the 21st Century, and they directly challenge the vision of a harmonious world—as they have always complicated peaceful relations throughout history. Wu acknowledged as much, saying that energy security is a serious issue because resources are scarce. As more countries develop and expand their standards of living, the greater the demand there will be on these scare resources. Developing nations need resources to expand their economies.
So how will the world’s leaders deal with this problem? Wu said the choice is between two competing trends: (1) peaceful development, interdependence and cooperation; or (2) confrontation and conflict. “The first trend represents the future; the second trend the past,” said Wu. “The destiny of mankind will be determined by the competition between these two trends.”
The Imperative to Change
One has to wonder how the competition between these trends will evolve: Will Asia’s soft economic powers defy U.S. hard power? If so, can the United States effectively function in a world where military power has less influence over global affairs? Will U.S. business and political leaders be willing to share their power and influence? Can they survive in a world where success is determined by how adept one is at cooperating and collaborating?
It would be interesting to exam closer Wu’s idea that two trends will compete for influence. How would such a competition manifest in the search for scare resources? Under the selection process laid out by Wu, one can imagine that countries could choose to either cooperate along multilateral lines to find a way to reduce the demand for resources, or they can confront other nations to divide up resources according to their needs.
In a way, China was put to the test on the eve of the Beijing Olympics. Russia and Georgia entered into a five-day way after Georgia attacked South Ossetia, a breakaway region of Georgia. The region holds strategic value to Russia and to the West due to oil and gas pipelines in the Caspian Region. Significantly, China refused to take sides. (See background one and background two to read more about the conflict and international responses to it. )
But how would China respond if its strategic oil and gas interests were threatened? Some observers have accused the Chinese as acting as modern-day imperialists because of their interest in securing resources from African nations. In a March 2008 article entitled, “The new colonialists,” The Economist discussed Westerns fear of China’s growing hunger for food, raw materials and oil:
“In its drive to secure reliable supplies of raw materials, it is said, China is coddling dictators, despoiling poor countries and undermining Western efforts to spread democracy and prosperity. America and Europe, the shrillest voices say, are "losing" Africa and Latin America.”
China insists it will never seek to become colonial power. “China will never follow the footsteps of colonial powers; China will never commit expansion,” We said.
The Economist might agree, though that is not quite clear. The magazine article concluded that the greatest cause for concern about China’s hunger for resources lies within the country itself. The rabid hunger for resources comes from China’s reliance on heavy industries such as steelmaking, which pollute the country and its citizens.
So what is China’s solution to the problem of scarce resources? According to Wu, the answer lies in changing the way we live and consume energy. “The way of life we are seeing today is invented by Western countries,” Wu said. “But with so many people in the world rising, the world simply does not have sufficient resources to support that kind of way of life. We’ve got to change.”